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Resilience Engineering
TU DelftTU EindhovenUniversity of TwenteWageningen University
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Resilience Engineering
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Website: 4TU.nl

Guus ten Broeke

After completing my MSc in theoretical physics at university of Amsterdam, I moved to Biometris, Wageningen University & Research, as PhD candidate on the topic of sensitivity analysis for agent-based models. After completing my PhD, I continued as Post-Doc at Biometris. My main research interest is the development and application of methods for analysing simulation models. These analysis methods are needed for simulation models to yield a better understanding of the modelled system, or to make predictions about the system. I have developed techniques and procedures for such analyses, and have been responsible for model analyses in a range of applications. Currently, I am working for the 4TU Centre for Resilience Engineering on the development of methods for quantification of resilience of social-ecological systems.

Social-ecological systems are eco-systems that are intertwined with the people using and governing them. Resilience of social-ecological systems is difficult to operationalise. One cause of this difficulty is that human decisions and actions are an essential part of social-ecological systems. Human behaviour should thus be included in resilience assessments, but this behaviour is complex and difficult to predict.

Agent-based models provide a tool to include human decision-making in simulation models of social-ecological systems. In agent-based models, each decision-maker is explicitly represented as an agent with behavioural rules. The model is composed of interacting agents and their environment. While this makes agent-based models ideally suited for modelling human behaviour, it also makes their output complex and difficult to analyse. Currently the utility of agent-based models is held back by a lack of available methods for this analysis. New methods are needed to assess resilience of agent-based models based on their generated output.